NBA Playoffs 2019: Bucks vs. Raptors odds, picks, Game 3 predictions

Bucks vs. Raptors

NBA Playoffs 2019: Bucks vs. Raptors odds, picks, Game 3 predictions from model on 85-61 roll

Bucks vs. Raptors Live

Experts' predictions for Warriors-Blazers and Bucks-Raptors series

The Toronto Raptors will try to get on the board against the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday. This time, the series shifts to Toronto and Scotiabank Arena for Game 3 in the 2019 NBA Playoffs. On Friday, the Bucks took a 2-0 lead with a convincing 125-103 victory in Milwaukee. The Bucks got a team-high 30 points and 17 rebounds from Giannis Antetokounmpo and excellent play from their bench in a game they never trailed. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard scored a game-high 31 points for Toronto, but only two other Raptors scored in double-digits. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET. Toronto is favored by two in the latest Bucks vs. Raptors odds, down one from the opener, while the over-under for total points scored is 219.5. Before making any Bucks vs. Raptors picks of your own, scope out the predictions for the 2019 NBA Playoffs from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered the conference finals in the 2019 NBA Playoffs with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them this season. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering the conference finals on a strong 85-61 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has honed in on Bucks vs. Raptors. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is available only at SportsLine.

The model has factored in that Toronto is returning to Scotiabank Arena for Game 3. The Raptors are a much better team at home than on the road. They went 32-9 at home this season, the second best home record in the NBA. In addition, they outscored opponents by 7.5 points in Toronto during the regular season.

The model also has considered that as long as the Raptors have Leonard, they have a chance. The two-way forward is on a roll in the 2019 NBA Playoffs. In 14 playoff games, he is averaging 31.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.3 steals, while shooting 52.7 percent from the field. On Friday night, he had 31 points on 10-of-18 shooting and eight rebounds. He has been even better at home during the NBA Playoffs 2019, averaging 33.0 points on 55.6 percent shooting.

But just because Toronto is playing at home in Game 3 does not guarantee it will cover the Raptors vs. Bucks spread on Sunday.

The model also knows Milwaukee has dominated the Raptors this season. The Bucks are 5-1 against Toronto this year, including four regular season games, outscoring the Raptors 113.7 to 104.3. In addition, Milwaukee won both of the matchups in Toronto, 104-99 on Dec. 9 and 105-92 on Jan. 31. 

The Bucks are getting significant contributions from their bench so far this series. Milwaukee's reserves are averaging 38.0 points through two games, significantly more than they averaged during the regular season (31.8). On Friday, the Bucks' bench outscored Toronto's backups, 54-39. The play of Milwaukee's bench has allowed the Bucks to be less reliant on Antetokounmpo, who has been solid nonetheless, averaging 27.0 points and 15.5 rebounds in the first two games of the series.